Tuesday, November 13, 2012

Feb's Teachings

Feb's threads

Tail your stops. Thats my secert weapon. The market hits my 20 ticks stop-loss once in a blue moon. I don't even remember the last time. If I get stopped, I look for an opportunity the other way. Be a player.

Post shows feb entry.

downtrend=lower lows +lower highs
uptrend=higher highs +higher lows
if in a downtrend the pullback doesnt form a higher high + higher low most of the times the downtrend will continue...

ok I might pop a bubble here...but here we go
You win...one time...yeah...of course you get excited...it's normal.
Then...let's say..you win a second time....a third time
now you feel like in top of the world...yeah baby
but.......you lose 1
"it's cool" you say
but....you lose again...oh ..what's going on???
then...lets say you win 1 time...things are leveling..right???
but then you lose again......now this feb crap doesn't work...I have to run back to the big mac and RSI
Remember, this is a race...not a sprint 


Monday, November 12, 2012

Technical Analysis Fallacy FTI - notes

1. Why Volume doesn't work.

--An explanation from FTI

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=1745429#post1745429

post33-what to look for in market.

2. Loss Recovery.
The percentage gain it takes to recover a loss increases geomatrically with losses.
Link

3. Do not draw patterns in your chart.
Link1 
Link2

 4. I understand you mainly trade on the 5 min. What do you do to determine the trend direction?
Post555 

5. About rescue and attack positions
Post959
Post1216
Rescue xls Post1220
Post1237
Post1252
post1259
post851 
post1419  FTI's attack sequence
post1422 different rescue sequecne from legih



Attack sequence - post1325

6. About position sizing
Post949

5. Good posts
post177 and 4 below
post579 
post746 
FTI's interpretation of AOW chapter 1 , chapter 2
post964,
post1045
post1066,
post1084
Elliot fist studies post882
post49&51
Legs post1316
post1430 The more rigid the MO, the weaker the player. There is no skill
post1433 Not pattern analysis but the way it forms
The ISSUE stop loss order post1767

6. The Romance of the 3 Kingdoms
Post981
7. Get in to trade when you are in front of the tradestation,
Post1065, Post1081

8. leighsww explains about rescue troops post1182 
post1650 - you need a different mindset to trade fti's method.post1657

9. Trading simulator

10. Examples from NortPro
post1384
post1362
post1364 - in rescue operations donot look for more profit. Start attack again is a better option.

Songs post
chart analysis by FTI post1
warning by FTI post
about market flow post1588
I repeat.
The only way to manage a win AND a loss position is by size snowballing.
There is no other way. One increases the profitabilty bottom line and the other a recovery protocol.

Snowballing your positions in a win situation to to enhance and stretch the profits in the book.

Snowballing in a loss situation is very tricky,
The trick is to stay on the front line, and not allowing the market to run too far away from you for effective salvaging the bad . Therefore averaging of cost is the main component in this MO. Later in Art of War you will learn that to save 1 bad postion , you will need a squad. Therefore the timing is critical and the terrain whereby this is allowed to occcur must be manageable. This MO must be given sufficient thought , well parametered and executed swiftly on running battle sequences. If any possibilities of failure were to present itself , the whole exercise have to be abandon. So use it wisely. Under the strength of unlimited capital, this activity will dig you out of the holes , a trader might find themselves in. But traders do not have unlimited resource as with banks, if this protocol is adopted then much preparation is necessary, in terms of the limits of the parameters is concerned.

Remember that every loss you swallow, based on the WW tables, will put you off geometrically. So to a trader a 10 cts profit is a 10cts profit whereas a 10cts loss is not exactly that, its more. To keep books healthy, loss taking is a very detrimental exercise.
Try to be profitable , a small profit is better than a very small loss, by leaps.

======================

It is very possible to only have to put in one rescue attempt or at the most two, because if you're needing to put any more than 2 rescue attempts, that probably means you either are not entering your rescue at the right time, or you are not exiting at break even (or "small" profit).

Where Am I here